Day-late TiVo Log

Ahhhh, blazed through the last two stages on my TiVo (pretty easy given that they were sprint stages). But now I'm in the meat of the backlog, the weekend Pyrenees stages. With the mountaintop finish we should have a great stage today, with plenty of opportunity for time to be put on opponents. The penultimate climb is an hors category climb.

Going back to my previous picks, I'm gonna scratch Horner and Valverde from the potentials today. Horner made his effort yesterday and failed; he's not gonna have it in the legs today. And Valverde, of course, has dropped out, which makes him a really bad pick for Stage 14.

My pick, with the benefit of Stages 12 and 13 is going to be Rasmussen. I think he can attack, and while Armstrong will try to contain a Rasmussen attack, he can afford to hand the yellow to Rasmussen. This would also be a good stage for the Spanish riders like Mancebo. I still maintain that Basso is going to try and do something on one of the weekend stages, but I think that whatever he does, he won't be far from Armstrong. I'll go back to my earlier prediction, which was:

Garate and Totschnig are part of an early break.

41k to go and the peloton is breaking apart

Vino and two T-Mobile riders are attacking. Armstrong is with them.

I see Popo a bit back.

Vino is atacking and Armstrong is sitting on Ullrich, and Ullrich is bridging back up to Vino (whaaaa?)

Now Vino is riding third. It's Ull, Arm, Vino

This is a very early attack. They're still on the penultimate climb.

The T-Mobile attack has blown apart Team Discovery. What a great move if this holds.

Now it's Ras, Basso, Armstrong, Ullrich, Mancebo, Botero (?), and Vino barely hanging on.

Popo is trying to bridge back up.

Vino attacks again. Basso is catching up. Armstrong has not responded yet. Moreau is going across. Basso has passed Vino, but Ullrich has caught up to him. It's Basso, Moreau, Ullrich, and Vino. Armstrong still has not responded. This is unbelievable!

Ras attacks from the Armstrong group and is going to try and catch up. Armstrong's group picks up the pace but Armstrong is riding in a small group instead of bridging across. Perhaps Armstrong is looking for safety in numbers.

The Ull/Bass/Vin group is zooming up the road but they aren't really working together yet. They're kinda staring at each other a bit, perhaps wondering what Armstrong will do.

Armstrong is finally bridging back up! He jumped up to Mancebo's wheel then around.

I guess he's decided that the riders he's with aren't doing enough work.

Armstrong is already back! Man, after letting them go for a couple of minutes he EASILY bridged back up.

The front of the race is starting to regroup again with Mancebo and Rasmussen bridging back up, but Vino looks to be in trouble. Cadel Evans is part of the chase group riding on Armstrong's wheel. Kloden is up there as well, putting T-Mobile is a great spot.

Apparently Evans announced he would attack today, which would have been nice to know.

Basso pushes the pace back up which has separated the chase group again. It's Basso/Armstrong/Ullrich/+1

There's still a breakaway with Totschnig that's been away for awhile.

Landis/Man/Ras/Vino/Kloden are riding together. Now they're dropping Vino, who's done his job for the day.

If you can tell from my notes, it's just a complete mess going up this climb.

Landis has bridged his group back up to the Basso/Armstrong/Ullrich group. There's now seven in this chase group. The earlier breakaway is still 6:30 ahead.

It's back to a group of four in the Armstrong group, with Landis jumping in. It looks like Mancebo, Ras, and Kloden aren't too far behind.

The breakaway is now only 4:52 ahead, so these attacks with the chase groups are really cutting into it. Whatever happens from here on out, it looks like Armstrong is gonna be pretty lonely, which tips the advantage to the swarm of GC riders around him.

Now Armstrong is setting tempo up the climb. Levi has joined his group, making five riders.

There's an Evans/Mancebo/Kloden/Rasmussen chase group behind the Armstrong group.

Totschnig is going over the second to last climb, four minutes ahead of the mess behind

Now the Armstrong group is over the top of the penultimate climb. Now we'll have to see how things regroup given that the other chase groups aren't that far behind.

Rasmussen gets some KoM points as he heads over.

If the other riders are trying to intimidate Armstrong, they haven't, though they have isolated him. Armstrong has tried to do a bit of his own psychological warfare with that quick bridging and the tempo setting. He does not look the least bit weak.

25k to go. It won't be too long before they're on the final climb.

Rasmussen has bridged up to the Armstrong group. Looks like several other riders came up with him. 10 or so riders in the Armstrong group. Armstrong is riding on the back of his group, observing.

8k to go for Totschnig, who's on the final climb. He will probably win this one as his gap has grown to 4:45

Vino goes yet again as the climb starts (he had just caught up on the descent)

Armstrong isn't going to respond to this one, he probably wants someone else to do the work as Vino isn't really an overall threat anymore. Kloden and Ullrich have chased Vino down! What the hell? This is the second time T-Mobile has chased down thier own teammate.

I haven't seen Ullrich ride this much on the offensive in, well, um, ever, and he's got Kloden helping him out.

buh-bye Zubeldia from Armstrong's group

Vino's probably done for the day.

Now Basso is setting the tempo. It put a little separation on Landis and Levi, but they get back. Ras/Man/Klo are dropped yet again. I don't thikn my pick's gonna come true on this one.

Basso is trying to get someone to come through but no one will.

Landis and Levi are dropped again, but they bridge back up again.

Totschnig is at 5km to go.

Now Levi and Landis look like they've finally cracked.

It's just Armstrong/Basso/Ullrich now, though they probably won't catch Totschnig

Armstrong is picking up the tempo. He's studying Basso and Ullrich. He looks like he's readying an attack. He's moved to the back position, where he often attacks from.

Totschnig is at 4km to go

Armstrong leads the group past Garzelli, so they are fighting for second.

Rasmussen and Mancebo are trying to catch up.

Armstrong is still setting the pace. 2:10 behind Totschnig who has 3.3k to go

The fans on the road are pretty bad today, cutting off all the lines.

Armstrong is STILL setting the pace with 3km to go. 1:50 to Totschnig, but Totschnig is near the summit so things will pick up for him.

Ullrich is finally coming through to set tempo and Armstrong moves to the back.

A stupid Colombian fan slows Armstrong's group down by running right in front of them.

Now Armstrong is picking up the tempo into the barriers section (no more stupid fans)

Totschnig is at the summit of the climb, 1km to go for him.

Ullrich has cracked under Armstrong's lastest tempo setting.

Armstrong is flying uphill. Basso is in a familiar position from 2004: right on Armstrong's wheel.

Totschnig takes the stage win. Great job of staying away.

Armstrong is going waay fast, Basso can't hold his wheel

Armstrong is going to take second with a gap on Basso of a couple seconds.